· Covers 3Q 2026 · Data as of October 2026 · Ironmark research
Lakeland industrial vacancy was 7.7% in 3Q 2026 (data as of October 2026), and average asking rent was $9.18 per SF per year, according to Ironmark’s 3Q 2026 Lakeland Industrial Brief.
Lakeland built big and leased small in 3Q 2026. Vacancy, the share of space that is empty, rose to 7.7%, up 0.6 pts in a year: about 2M SF of new space opened over 12 months, while the change in occupied space (space tenants moved into, minus space they moved out of) was +1.24M SF. In the third quarter it was +477K SF. Asking rents average about $9.18 per SF a year, plus taxes, insurance and upkeep; across all buildings, rents rose 4.7% in a year, against 1.3% nationally. About 2.75M SF is being built, including a 1.35M SF Amazon project; the other buildings going up average about 158,700 SF and only 15.9% is already leased. On the sales side, $451.5 million sold, but four buyers spent 66% of it.
See how Lakeland compares with Florida’s other industrial markets in the statewide market data table.
The bottom line: built big, leased small.
- For tenants: the 12 buildings going up in the project list average 158,700 SF and only 15.9% is leased. Tenants under 100,000 SF can negotiate.
- For owners: about 2M SF of new space opened in 12 months, but occupied space rose only 1.24M SF and vacancy rose 0.6 pts. Plan to subdivide.
- For buyers: four buyers spent 66% of the $451.5M. Price a big leased building on who is bidding, not the 7.4% cap rate.
What happened in Lakeland industrial in 3Q 2026
Four things defined Polk County’s year: two large leases led a slower year for occupied space, warehouse and distribution buildings hold the empty space, rents kept rising from a low starting point, and the buildings going up got bigger.
- Big leases, smaller gain. Over the past 12 months, Nearly Natural leased 413,437 SF on State Road 33 N and Worldwide Electric 274,000 SF on Allen K Breed Hwy. Yet occupied space rose only 1.24M SF, against 2.33M SF in our 2Q 2026 brief.
- Warehouses hold the empty space. Warehouse and distribution space is 8.6% empty, and 9.9% is available (empty, or occupied but marketed for lease). Specialized industrial (manufacturing, cold storage and similar) is 4.1% empty; flex space (small office-and-warehouse units) 7.3%. Warehouses are also 1.43M SF of the 1.90M SF on the project-by-project list of buildings being built.
- Rents up 4.7% anyway. Asking rents average about $9.18 per SF a year, plus taxes, insurance and upkeep. Across all buildings, rents rose 4.7% in a year, against 1.3% nationally.
- Bigger buildings, few tenants yet. About 2.75M SF is being built, including a 1.35M SF Amazon project. The project list has 12 buildings (1.90M SF), only 15.9% already leased. They average 158,661 SF, against 47,540 SF for existing buildings; the largest is Tratt’s 608,380 SF at 4001 Logistics Pky.
Lakeland industrial by building type, 3Q 2026
Warehouses are the market. Lakeland is tracked as one area (Polk County), so Ironmark reads it by building type. Warehouse and distribution space is 78% of all space and three-quarters of the project list. Over 12 months, occupied space rose 2.19M SF in 17 buildings and fell 949K SF in all the rest.
| Building type | All space (SF) | Being built (SF) | Share of all space | Vacancy (% empty) | Rent vs market average | Available (empty or marketed) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Warehouse/distribution | 73.2M | 1.43M | 77.8% | 8.6% | -2% | 9.9% |
| Specialized industrial | 17.9M | 459K | 19.0% | 4.1% | +1% | 5.1% |
| Flex (small office/warehouse units) | 3.0M | 11K | 3.2% | 7.3% | +42% | 6.1% |
| Lakeland market overall | 94.2M | 1.90M | 100% | 7.7% | — | 8.8% |
All industrial buildings, Polk County, data as of October 2026; building-type groupings: Ironmark analysis. All space = all existing industrial space. Rent vs market average = each type’s asking rent against the market average. Available = empty, or occupied but marketed for lease, as a share of all space. Specialized industrial = manufacturing, cold storage and similar. Building-type figures count every project in the source data; they total less than the one market report at the top of this page, whose figure includes a 1.35M SF Amazon project.
Building type drives the rate. Flex rents run 42% above the market average, while specialized industrial (+1%) and warehouse/distribution (−2%) sit close to it. Warehouses have the most empty space, at 8.6%; specialized industrial has the least, at 4.1%. And warehouses are 1.43M SF of the space on the project list, the same type with the most empty space.
Lakeland industrial capital markets: sales volume, pricing and cap rates
Four buyers, two-thirds of the dollars. Lakeland industrial sales totaled $451.5 million over the past 12 months across 113 sales, well above the $182.4 million long-run yearly average. A few deals made most of it: one $133.6 million Sherwin-Williams distribution sale is about 30%, and four buyers account for 66%. The estimated market value is about $116 per SF, up 5.1% in a year, and the cap rate (the yearly return from rent, as a % of the price) is 7.4%.
A. Duda & Sons bought the Sherwin-Williams distribution center for $133.6 million (30% of the total) and MDH Partners paid $67.7 million for Lakeland Commerce Center (15%); EQT ($61.5 million, CenterState Logistics Park) and GTJ REIT ($36.3 million, Haines City) round out a top four that bought 66% of the $451.5 million. Beneath the big sales, Lakeland is a small-building market: across all 113 sales the typical price was $1.2 million, the typical building 9,356 SF and the typical year built 1986. Expect yearly totals to swing on whether a handful of buyers of very large warehouses show up, while sales of small buildings, many to businesses that buy a building to use themselves, keep a steadier pace.
Ironmark’s read on Lakeland industrial
What we’re seeing on the ground.
“Lakeland is building 158,700-SF buildings, on average, for a market whose typical big lease is about 26,000 SF. Until the tenant size catches up, new supply sets the vacancy rate, not demand.”
Look at what is being built: the project list shows 12 buildings, 1.9 million SF, averaging about 158,700 SF each, against existing buildings that average 47,500 SF. Only 15.9% of it is already leased. Over the past year about 2 million SF of new space opened, while occupied space rose 1.24 million SF, and vacancy rose 0.6 pts to 7.7%. The big users are real: Nearly Natural took 413,000 SF and Worldwide Electric 274,000 SF. But of the 38 largest leases signed in the 12 months to September, 33 were under 100,000 SF, and the typical one was about 26,000 SF. For owners of the new buildings, that means plans to subdivide and marketing to tenants under 100,000 SF now, not waiting for one tenant to take the building. For a tenant that size, this is the window to negotiate.
— Matthew L. Phillips, SIOR · (561) 621-5466
“Four buyers wrote two-thirds of Lakeland’s $451.5 million in sales. When one $133.6 million sale is 30% of the year, price the buyer list, not the average cap rate.”
A. Duda & Sons paid $133.6 million, $195 per SF, for the 685,005-SF Sherwin-Williams distribution center in Winter Haven at a 4.0% expected cap rate (yearly return from rent, as a % of price), about 30% of the year’s sales on its own. Add MDH Partners’ $67.7 million for Lakeland Commerce Center, EQT’s $61.5 million for CenterState Logistics Park and GTJ REIT’s $36.3 million in Haines City, and four buyers account for 66% of the dollars. The other 107 sales shared about $152 million, and the typical sale was $1.2 million. That is how a 7.4% market cap rate and a 5.8% typical rate on the few sales that disclose one can both be true. For the owner of a large leased building, the realistic bid list is short, so who is on it matters more than any average. Everyone else should price off the market rate.
— Troy Schaafsma, SIOR · (561) 621-5489
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the industrial vacancy rate in Lakeland?
Industrial vacancy in Lakeland and Polk County, the share of space that is empty, was 7.7% in 3Q 2026 (data as of October 2026), up 0.6 points in a year, according to Ironmark’s 3Q 2026 Lakeland Industrial Brief. About 2M SF of new space opened over 12 months, while occupied space rose 1.24M SF. Warehouse and distribution buildings are 8.6% empty; specialized industrial has the least empty space at 4.1%.
What does warehouse space rent for in Lakeland?
Asking rents for Lakeland industrial space averaged about $9.18 per SF per year in 3Q 2026, plus the tenant’s share of taxes, insurance and upkeep, per Ironmark’s 3Q 2026 Lakeland Industrial Brief. Across all Polk County industrial buildings, rents rose 4.7% in a year, against 1.3% nationally. Flex space (small office-and-warehouse units) rents run 42% above the market average.
How much industrial space is being built in Lakeland?
About 2.75M SF of industrial space was being built in Lakeland and Polk County in 3Q 2026, according to the one third-quarter market report that covers the county, cited in Ironmark’s 3Q 2026 Lakeland Industrial Brief. That figure includes a 1.35M SF Amazon project. The project-by-project list has 12 other buildings averaging about 158,700 SF, only 15.9% already leased, against 47,500 SF for existing buildings.
What are industrial buildings selling for in Lakeland?
The typical Lakeland industrial sale (the middle of 113 sales over the past 12 months) was $129 per SF, and the cap rate, the yearly return from rent as a % of the price, was 7.4%, per Ironmark’s 3Q 2026 Lakeland Industrial Brief. About $451.5 million sold, and four buyers accounted for 66% of the dollars.
Are Lakeland industrial tenants leasing very large warehouses?
Mostly not. Of the 38 largest Lakeland industrial leases signed in the 12 months to September 2026, 33 were under 100,000 SF and the typical one was about 26,000 SF, according to Ironmark’s 3Q 2026 Lakeland Industrial Brief. The largest were Nearly Natural at 413,437 SF and Worldwide Electric at 274,000 SF.
Buying, selling, or leasing in Lakeland? See Ironmark’s Lakeland and Polk County industrial brokerage, or read every Florida market brief.
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Ironmark Florida Industrial Brief — Lakeland Edition. Ironmark Capital Advisory’s own analysis and commentary, covering 3Q 2026, data as of October 2026. Sources: the third-quarter change in occupied space, the asking rent and the space being built are from Cushman & Wakefield’s Polk County Industrial MarketBeat, Q3 2026 (21 Oct), the only third-quarter brokerage report found that covers Polk County on its own. Its 2.75M SF being built includes a 1.35M SF Amazon project (Central Florida Integrated Logistics Park 4A); the project-by-project list behind the building-type table counts 12 buildings and 1.90M SF and does not include that project. From this edition the headline asking rent is the middle figure of other firms’ third-quarter reports (here, the one report that covers Polk County); earlier Ironmark briefs used an estimate covering every building, which runs higher, so the two are not directly comparable. U.S. Census Bureau (Polk County population, Vintage 2025); U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (Lakeland-Winter Haven metro area jobs, Sep 2026, preliminary); Ironmark analysis (building-type reading, the occupied-space breakdown, commentary and the principals’ takes). Figures are believed reliable but not guaranteed; informational only and not tax, legal, or investment advice. © 2026 Ironmark Capital Advisory. Main line (561) 621-5450.