· Covers 3Q 2026 · Data as of October 2026 · Ironmark research
This is Ironmark’s institutional edition: a statewide, data-led view of Florida industrial for funds, REITs and family offices. Florida industrial sales reached $10.33B through September (+45% YoY), median pricing rose +11% to $208/SF, and institutional capital took 41% of the dollars. Fundamentals lag: ten-metro vacancy rose 130 bps to 8.47% as 12-month absorption of +2.7M SF trailed 22.2M SF of deliveries. The full review, with 28 exhibits, is available below.
Sales figures: Ironmark analysis of recorded Florida industrial and flex sales, data as of 1 November 2026. Fundamentals: third-party market data, October 2026. See Sources.
What Defines Florida Industrial in 3Q 2026?
- Capital re-engaged before fundamentals turned. Volume is up +45% YTD (+36% excluding Citadel’s $637M Mana Wynwood assembly) and pricing +11%, while vacancy drifted up 130 bps.
- The supply wave is cresting. The pipeline is 1.46% of inventory; the third-party base case has ten-metro vacancy peaking near 8.6% at year-end 2027 and easing to 8.2% in 2028.
- A two-tier market. Small-bay under 50,000 SF runs about 4–5% vacant; 100,000 SF+ runs 9.5–19%, concentrated in product delivered since 2020. Buildings under 10,000 SF trade at a $250/SF median.
- Institutional rotation. Institutional, PE and REIT buyers were net acquirers; private owners sold a net $789M. Foreign capital fell to 1% of 3Q volume.
- Thin spread, easing costs. A 6.80% median cap rate against a 10-year that ended September at 5.29%; insurance pricing falling, sales tax on commercial rent repealed, and Amendment 3 on the 3 November ballot.
Which Florida Industrial Markets Rank Best?
Ten measures ranked across the ten metros: seven on fundamentals and three on capital-market momentum, weighted 60/40 into a composite where lower is better. Shading marks each column’s top two, four and six. Palm Beach ranks first; Lakeland, Fort Myers and Palm Beach lead on fundamentals, and Fort Lauderdale, Palm Beach and Jacksonville on capital.
| Metro | Vacancy | Vacancy chg, 12 mo | Net absorption, % of inv. | Under constr., % of inv. | Pipeline preleased | Rent growth, 12 mo | Fcst vacancy chg to YE28 | Sales volume YoY | Median $/SF YoY | Institutional share | Composite |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Palm Beach | 8.1% | +130 bps | −0.03% | 0.33% | 64.8% | +2.3% | −70 bps | +64% | +18% | 55% | 3.9 |
| Lakeland | 7.7% | +60 bps | +1.31% | 2.02% | 15.9% | +4.7% | −140 bps | +76% | +14% | 17% | 4.3 |
| Fort Lauderdale | 7.2% | +120 bps | −0.15% | 0.60% | 10.6% | +1.8% | ±0 bps | +95% | +16% | 60% | 4.4 |
| Fort Myers | 9.2% | +80 bps | +2.08% | 2.75% | 71.5% | +2.1% | −230 bps | +68% | +12% | 10% | 4.8 |
| Jacksonville | 9.5% | +170 bps | +1.11% | 1.68% | 63.6% | +0.5% | −40 bps | +65% | +19% | 27% | 5.2 |
| Miami | 7.8% | +130 bps | +0.01% | 0.87% | 39.7% | +1.4% | −20 bps | +55% | +4% | 52% | 5.6 |
| Melbourne | 3.4% | −20 bps | +0.87% | 6.58% | 36.8% | +2.3% | +140 bps | +14% | +20% | 3% | 5.7 |
| Port St. Lucie | 16.3% | +440 bps | −3.54% | 3.04% | 57.8% | +2.6% | −190 bps | −10% | +16% | 22% | 6.9 |
| Tampa | 8.3% | +110 bps | +0.01% | 1.04% | 34.9% | −0.7% | ±0 bps | +32% | +9% | 14% | 6.9 |
| Orlando | 9.3% | +140 bps | −0.12% | 1.89% | 16.7% | +4.0% | +10 bps | +9% | +3% | 51% | 7.3 |
Fundamentals: third-party market data, October 2026 (forecast = base case, year-end 2028 minus current vacancy). Capital: Ironmark analysis of recorded sales, YTD 2026 vs YTD 2025. Ranks are relative within these ten metros.
How Do Florida’s Industrial Fundamentals Compare by Metro?
| Metro | Inventory SF | Vacancy | Vacancy chg 12 mo | Net absorption 12 mo | Under construction | Preleased | Asking rent (NNN) | Rent growth 12 mo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Miami | 284.0M | 7.8% | +130 bps | 34K | 2.61M | 40% | $17.07 | +1.4% |
| Tampa | 230.6M | 8.3% | +110 bps | 13K | 3.58M | 35% | $11.35 | −0.7% |
| Orlando | 216.2M | 9.3% | +140 bps | (265K) | 3.56M | 17% | $10.72 | +4.0% |
| Jacksonville | 174.4M | 9.5% | +170 bps | 1.94M | 1.78M | 64% | $8.69 | +0.5% |
| Fort Lauderdale | 144.2M | 7.2% | +120 bps | (212K) | 829K | 11% | $17.32 | +1.8% |
| Lakeland | 94.2M | 7.7% | +60 bps | 1.24M | 2.75M | 16% | $9.18 | +4.7% |
| Palm Beach | 71.9M | 8.1% | +130 bps | (23K) | 277K | 65% | $14.51 | +2.3% |
| Fort Myers | 46.1M | 9.2% | +80 bps | 962K | 1.24M | 72% | $13.75 | +2.1% |
| Port St. Lucie | 36.3M | 16.3% | +440 bps | (1.29M) | 801K | 58% | $10.90 | +2.6% |
| Melbourne | 33.3M | 3.4% | −20 bps | 292K | 2.20M | 37% | $13.71 | +2.3% |
| Ten metros | 1,331M | 8.47% | +130 bps | 2.69M | 19.63M | 37.3% | – | +1.7% |
Inventory, vacancy, absorption, preleasing and rent growth: third-party market data, October 2026. Under construction and asking rent: 3Q 2026 market consensus (median of brokerage reports), as in each Ironmark metro report.
Is the Florida Industrial Supply Wave Over?
Mostly. The ten metros delivered 22.2M SF over twelve months; what remains under construction is 1.46% of inventory, below the 2.1% U.S. rate, and 37.3% preleased. Orlando, Jacksonville, Miami, Tampa, Melbourne and Lakeland hold 82% of it. The base-case forecast still has deliveries outrunning absorption in 2027 before absorption overtakes supply in 2028.
| Metro | Pipeline % of inventory | Preleased | Vacancy now | Year-end 2027 | Year-end 2028 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Melbourne | 6.58% | 37% | 3.4% | 5.0% | 4.8% |
| Port St. Lucie | 3.04% | 58% | 16.3% | 14.7% | 14.4% |
| Fort Myers | 2.75% | 72% | 9.2% | 7.1% | 6.9% |
| Lakeland | 2.02% | 16% | 7.7% | 6.8% | 6.3% |
| Orlando | 1.89% | 17% | 9.3% | 9.9% | 9.4% |
| Jacksonville | 1.68% | 64% | 9.5% | 9.7% | 9.1% |
| Tampa | 1.04% | 35% | 8.3% | 8.8% | 8.3% |
| Miami | 0.87% | 40% | 7.8% | 8.0% | 7.6% |
| Fort Lauderdale | 0.60% | 11% | 7.2% | 7.4% | 7.2% |
| Palm Beach | 0.33% | 65% | 8.1% | 8.0% | 7.4% |
Third-party market data and base-case forecast, October 2026.
How Much Florida Industrial Sold, and at What Price?
Quarterly volume has stepped up from $1.91B in 1Q 2025 to $4.00B in 3Q 2026 (+38% YoY; $3.36B and +16% excluding the Mana Wynwood campus, marked *). Median pricing reached $217/SF in 3Q (+21% YoY). Small-bay carries the premium; every size band repriced upward.
| Building size | Median $/SF YTD 2025 | Median $/SF YTD 2026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| <10K SF | $231 | $250 | +8% |
| 10–50K SF | $135 | $150 | +11% |
| 50–100K SF | $134 | $139 | +4% |
| 100–250K SF | $134 | $142 | +6% |
| 250K+ SF | $99 | $135 | +36% |
Ironmark analysis of recorded Florida industrial and flex sales (arms-length, sold); medians use single-asset sales. Recent quarters keep filling in for months, so 3Q 2026 is a floor.
Who Is Buying and Selling Florida Industrial?
Institutional, private-equity and listed-REIT buyers took 41% of YTD dollars, up from 31%, and were net buyers. Trades of $25M+ were 55% of volume (from 38%) and portfolio sales 56% (from 32%): fewer, larger deals.
| Capital type | Buyer share YTD 2025 | Buyer share YTD 2026 | Seller share YTD 2026 | Net acquired YTD 2026 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Private | 47% | 44% | 52% | −$789M |
| Institutional | 22% | 28% | 27% | +$148M |
| Private equity | 5% | 5% | 2% | +$286M |
| Listed REIT | 4% | 8% | 4% | +$384M |
| Owner-user | 15% | 12% | 12% | −$55M |
Where Is the Capital Going by Metro?
| Metro | Volume YTD 2026 | YoY | Median $/SF | YoY | Institutional share |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Miami | $2.45B | +55% | $313 | +4% | 52% |
| Fort Lauderdale | $2.14B | +95% | $304 | +16% | 60% |
| Orlando | $1.07B | +9% | $190 | +3% | 51% |
| Tampa | $1.03B | +32% | $167 | +9% | 14% |
| Jacksonville | $0.88B | +65% | $149 | +19% | 27% |
| Palm Beach | $0.66B | +64% | $334 | +18% | 55% |
| Fort Myers | $0.43B | +68% | $226 | +12% | 10% |
| Lakeland | $0.40B | +76% | $131 | +14% | 17% |
| Melbourne | $0.18B | +14% | $151 | +20% | 3% |
| Port St. Lucie | $0.17B | −10% | $212 | +16% | 22% |
Miami includes the $637M Mana Wynwood campus. Largest 3Q trades included Fingerlakes Industrial Park in Doral ($195M), Gateway Business Centre in Pinellas Park ($192M) and Sherwin-Williams’ Winter Haven distribution center ($134M).
| Property | Metro | SF | Price | $/SF | Buyer | Seller |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fingerlakes Industrial Pk, Doral | Miami | 730K | $195M | $267 | Longpoint Realty Partners | Brookfield Property Group |
| Gateway Business Centre, Pinellas Park | Tampa | 1,077K | $192M | $178 | GID Industrial Advisors LLC | La Caisse |
| Sherwin-Williams Distribution Center, Winter Haven | Lakeland | 685K | $134M | $195 | A. Duda & Sons, Inc. | Paul V. Profeta & Associates, Inc. |
| Commerce Center at Countyline, Hialeah | Miami | 373K | $109M | $292 | Ares Management Corporation | BGRE |
| Vineland Center, Orlando | Orlando | 547K | $103M | $188 | BKM Capital Partners | Link Logistics Real Estate |
| Bldg L, Coconut Creek | Fort Lauderdale | 337K | $99M | $293 | CIP Real Estate Property Services | Industrial Development Company |
| Tradeport Vantage I, Jacksonville | Jacksonville | 909K | $88M | $97 | GID Industrial Advisors LLC | La Caisse |
| Multi-Property Sale, Miami | Miami | 292K | $86M | $295 | Midtown Capital Partners | Martin Waas |
What Do Industrial Outdoor Storage and Yard Sites Sell For?
Yard and truck-terminal sites rarely appear as land sales, so Ironmark isolates land-heavy industrial sales: sites of an acre or more where the building covers under 15% of the land. Since January 2025, 633 such sales traded for $2.18B at a median $655K per acre; YTD volume is up 61%. Raw industrial land sold at $366K per acre. For the outdoor storage case in full, see Ironmark’s industrial outdoor storage advisory.
| Metro | Median price per acre | Sales |
|---|---|---|
| Fort Lauderdale | $2.38M | 25 |
| Miami | $1.86M | 27 |
| Palm Beach | $1.43M | 14 |
| Fort Myers | $0.92M | 42 |
| Port St. Lucie | $0.78M | 31 |
| Orlando | $0.75M | 77 |
| Tampa | $0.70M | 102 |
| Melbourne | $0.69M | 33 |
| Jacksonville | $0.60M | 58 |
| Lakeland | $0.43M | 37 |
| Site size | Median price per acre | Sales |
|---|---|---|
| 1–2 ac | $942K | 183 |
| 2–5 ac | $641K | 248 |
| 5–10 ac | $538K | 118 |
| 10–25 ac | $292K | 59 |
| 25 ac+ | $143K | 25 |
Ironmark analysis of recorded sales, January 2025–September 2026: confirmed single-building prices; condo units and park-level land records excluded. A proxy for IOS, not a full count.
What Are the Risks for Florida Industrial Investors?
- Cost of capital (adverse). The 10-year rose from 4.44% to 5.29% in 3Q (average 4.76%); the Fed raised 25 bps on 16 September and held on 28 October.
- Insurance (improving). U.S. commercial property rates fell about 10% in 3Q; Citizens commercial non-residential rates are down 1.8% (multiperil) and 5.0% (wind-only).
- Sales tax on rent (improving). Repealed for rental periods from 1 October 2025, warehouses included.
- Property tax (pending). Amendment 3, on the 3 November 2026 ballot, would cut the non-homestead assessment cap from 10% to 5% from 2027.
- Supply (mixed). Speculative big-box remains the swing factor for 2027 vacancy, concentrated in Orlando and the Treasure Coast.
- Foreign capital (retreating). 1% of 3Q volume, from 12% in 2Q.
Where Would Ironmark Invest in Florida Industrial Now?
Buy the scarcity the averages hide (functional small-bay, infill, pre-2000 stock that is effectively full) and be paid for lease-up risk in 2020s bulk, where most of Florida’s vacancy now sits. Ironmark provides institutional investor representation from buy box to close.
| Metro | Stance | Why |
|---|---|---|
| Palm Beach | Overweight | Thinnest pipeline in the state (0.33% of stock, 65% preleased); small-bay under 100K SF 4.1% vacant; $334/SF median and 55% institutional buyers. Vacancy is in ~85 big boxes, not in the infill base. |
| Fort Lauderdale | Overweight | Deepest institutional bid (60% of YTD dollars, volume +95%); pre-2000 large-format ~3.5% vacant. Recent deliveries (~36% vacant) are the risk; buy existing infill, not new spec. |
| Miami | Neutral+ | Largest, most liquid market ($2.45B YTD) with small-bay at ~4.5% vacancy, but rents flat to softer and lease-up exposure in 100–500K SF new product. Pricing ($313/SF) already reflects scarcity. |
| Jacksonville | Overweight (value) | +1.94M SF absorbed and 64% of the pipeline preleased; pricing +19% from a low base ($149/SF). Vacancy (9.5%) sits in 2020s bulk, where entry basis is most attractive. |
| Lakeland | Overweight (value) | +1.24M SF absorbed, rent growth +4.7% (highest), forecast vacancy path down to 6.3% by 2028. Lowest pricing ($131/SF) in the I-4 corridor. |
| Fort Myers | Neutral+ | +962K SF absorbed and 71.5% preleased; vacancy forecast to 6.9% by 2028. Thin institutional depth (10%) limits exit liquidity. |
| Tampa | Neutral | Rents −0.7% and 6.6M SF vacant in post-2020 buildings; pre-1990 small-bay at a decade-high 5%. Buy older infill at a discount; avoid new bulk until 2027 deliveries clear. |
| Orlando | Underweight (spec big-box) | Largest pipeline (4.09M SF, 17% preleased); 500K SF+ about 16% vacant. Under-20K SF stays below 4%: small-bay remains a buy. |
| Melbourne | Neutral | Tightest market (3.4%) but a 6.6% pipeline; the base-case forecast has vacancy rising to 5.0% in 2027 before easing to 4.8%. |
| Port St. Lucie | Underweight | 16.3% vacant (+440 bps), (1.29M) SF absorbed; Class A 34% vacant vs 4.8% for everything else (CBRE). Opportunistic only. |
Ironmark view as of November 2026. Not investment advice.
What Do Ironmark’s Principals Make of the Quarter?
Matthew L. Phillips, SIOR — fundamentals and owners
The headline vacancy of 8.47% tells you less than it seems. Strip out buildings delivered since 2020 and most Florida markets are still effectively full: small-bay under 50,000 SF runs 4–5% vacant from Palm Beach to Jacksonville, and pre-2000 large-format space in Broward is around 3.5%. The vacancy is in new bulk, much of it built speculatively and still working through lease-up.
If you hold functional, older infill product, this is a seller’s market: the median sale price per square foot is up 11% this year, institutions were the net buyers, and private owners sold a net $789 million into that bid. If you hold new big-box, plan on time: the base-case forecast does not bring ten-metro vacancy down until 2028. At 1.46% of stock and a third preleased, the pipeline is smaller than the nation’s 2.1%; the markets that build the least, Palm Beach and Broward, are where rent growth will return first.
Troy Schaafsma, SIOR — capital markets and buyers
Capital moved before the fundamentals did. Florida industrial volume is up 45% this year to $10.33B, institutional and REIT buyers went from 31% to 41% of the dollars, and trades of $25 million and up are now 55% of volume. La Caisse, Brookfield and Link Logistics all sold Florida assets to new owners in the third quarter.
The spread is the constraint. A 6.8% median cap rate against a 10-year that ended the quarter at 5.29% leaves little going-in cushion, so buyers are being paid in mark-to-market rent and the 2028 recovery, not day-one yield. For a fund building a Florida position, I would lean into infill small-bay and leased 2020s bulk in Jacksonville and Lakeland, and stay patient on speculative big-box.
Get the full 18-page institutional review
Twenty-eight exhibits: metro scorecard, fundamentals, supply and forecast, pricing, buyer flows, yard-site pricing, risks and the source reconciliation. Tell us what you are working on and we will send the PDF.
Frequently Asked Questions
How much Florida industrial property sold in 2026?
Florida industrial and flex sales totaled $10.33 billion from January to September 2026, up 45% on the same period of 2025 (36% excluding a $637 million Miami production-campus assembly). Third-quarter volume was $4.00 billion, and trailing-12-month volume reached $14.03 billion across 3,083 transactions, by Ironmark analysis of recorded sales.
What is the Florida industrial cap rate in 2026?
The median cap rate on Florida industrial sales that reported one was 6.80% year to date in 2026, with the middle half between 6.0% and 7.5%, flat on 2025. Against a 10-year Treasury that averaged 4.76% in the third quarter, the spread was about 204 basis points, down from about 239 a year earlier.
Who is buying Florida industrial real estate?
Institutional, private-equity and listed-REIT buyers accounted for 41% of 2026 dollar volume through September, up from 31% a year earlier, and all three were net buyers. Private owners were net sellers of about $789 million. Foreign buyers fell to 1% of third-quarter volume.
What is the industrial vacancy rate across Florida?
Across the ten metros Ironmark covers (1.33 billion square feet), industrial vacancy was 8.47% as of October 2026, up 130 basis points in a year, against about 7.2% nationally. Small-bay buildings under 50,000 square feet run roughly 4–5% vacant in the markets that report it, while big-box space of 100,000 square feet and more runs 9.5–19%.
Which Florida industrial markets look strongest for investors?
On Ironmark’s ten-measure scorecard, Palm Beach ranks first, followed by Lakeland and Fort Lauderdale; Lakeland, Fort Myers and Palm Beach lead on fundamentals, and Fort Lauderdale, Palm Beach and Jacksonville on capital-market momentum. Orlando, Port St. Lucie and Tampa trail on both.
What do industrial outdoor storage sites sell for in Florida?
Land-heavy industrial sales, sites of an acre or more where the building covers under 15% of the land, traded at a median of about $655,000 per acre statewide from January 2025 to September 2026, and $1.9 to $2.4 million per acre in Miami and Fort Lauderdale. Raw industrial land traded at about $366,000 per acre.
Sources & Methodology
Fundamentals cover ten Florida industrial markets (Miami, Fort Lauderdale, Palm Beach, Port St. Lucie, Melbourne, Orlando, Lakeland, Tampa, Jacksonville, Fort Myers), all building sizes, data as of October 2026; ten-metro figures are Ironmark sums and inventory-weighted averages. Sales cover all of Florida, industrial and flex, arms-length and sold, January 2025 to September 2026; portfolios count once per deal; medians use single-asset sales. “Institutional share” combines institutional, private-equity and listed-REIT buyers. Asking rents are the 3Q 2026 brokerage consensus; rent growth and forecasts are a market rent index. The full review, with a source reconciliation, is available as a PDF.
- Market fundamentals and forecast — third-party industrial market data for ten Florida markets, data as of October 2026 (all building sizes); Ironmark ten-metro totals and weighting.
- Sales, pricing, cap rates, buyers, yards and land — Ironmark analysis of recorded Florida industrial and flex sale comps and industrial land sales, January 2025–September 2026, pulled 1 November 2026.
- Asking-rent consensus and pipeline cross-checks — 3Q 2026 brokerage reports: CBRE, Cushman & Wakefield, JLL, Colliers, Newmark, Avison Young, Lee & Associates, Savills, Marcus & Millichap, Matthews (October 2026).
- U.S. context — CBRE and Cushman & Wakefield 3Q 2026 U.S. industrial reports; Northmarq MarketSnapshot (28 October 2026).
- Rates — Federal Reserve H.15 via FRED (DGS10); FOMC statements of 16 September and 28 October 2026.
- Demand — BLS via FRED; U.S. Census Bureau (CB26-20); JAXPORT; Port Everglades (Broward County); PortMiami (Miami-Dade County); Port Tampa Bay; Miami International Airport traffic reports.
- Costs and risks — Marsh Global Insurance Market Index (3Q 2026); Citizens Property Insurance 2026 rate changes; Florida DOR TIP 25A01-04; Amendment 3 (CS/HJR 1F) and Florida Chamber/EDR revenue estimates.
Information obtained from sources deemed reliable but not guaranteed; verify prior to any decision. Nothing herein is tax, legal, or investment advice.
More Ironmark Research
Each metro has its own quarterly report: see all Ironmark market reports, including the Florida industrial market data page.
Ironmark Florida Industrial Capital Markets Review — Institutional Edition, 3Q 2026. Published November 2026 by Ironmark Capital Advisory. Contact Matthew L. Phillips, SIOR, (561) 621-5466, or Troy Schaafsma, SIOR, (561) 621-5489; main line (561) 621-5450. © 2026 Ironmark Capital Advisory.