Miami-Dade’s industrial market is re-pricing supply, not demand. Headline vacancy of 7.8% — up from 6.5% a year ago — masks a sharp split by size: big-box product over 250,000 SF is 13.2% vacant, while small-bay under 50,000 SF holds at 4.2%. Rent growth has cooled to 1.3% off an extraordinary base, yet at $21.01/SF the market still prices near the top of the state. Sales held near $1.9 billion over the trailing twelve months at a modeled $280/SF and sub-6% cap rates — a gateway premium to the ~$161 and 7.3% nationally. With the construction pipeline down to 1.6% of inventory, the 2027 supply picture looks tighter than today’s tape reads.
What Happened in Q3
Four threads run through Miami-Dade this quarter — a single lease flipped the quarter positive even as the trailing year stayed negative, vacancy keeps splitting by building size, rent growth decelerated hard off an extraordinary base, and the pipeline has fallen back below its ten-year norm:
- PepsiCo carries the quarter. PepsiCo’s 794,000-SF commencement at Bridge Point Commerce Center pushed net absorption to +517K SF for the quarter, yet the trailing twelve months remain negative at roughly −636K SF. One signing does not make a trend — it masks one.
- Two markets, one county. Vacancy climbs with the roll-up door count: 13.2% over 250,000 SF, 11.3% at 100K–250K, but only 4.2% under 50,000 SF. Small-bay space leases in under three months. The slack is entirely in the big boxes that delivered into a cooling market.
- Rent growth cools, the base holds. Asking rents rose 1.3% over the year — a steep step down from the 17.3% of 2023 — but the level held at $21.01 PSF, still near the top of the state. Renewing tenants on legacy leases face the real shock: many resets double the prior rate.
- The pipeline thins out. At 4.33M SF, the active pipeline sits at 1.6% of inventory — down from a 2023 peak above 9M SF and below the 5.5M-SF ten-year average. 2025 starts were the lowest since 2017, and just 21.7% of what’s underway is preleased.
By Submarket
Miami-Dade’s industrial submarkets, its largest by inventory. The Airport corridors and Medley anchor the county and carry the bulk of both stock and construction; the tightest markets — South Central Miami, and the small-bay pockets — sit near or below 4% vacancy while the big-box submarkets absorb the slack.
| Submarket | Vacancy | Asking Rent / SF | 12-Mo Net Absorption |
|---|---|---|---|
| Miami Airport West | 9.6% | $23.50 | (487K SF) |
| North Miami Beach | 9.8% | $18.64 | 49K SF |
| Medley | 9.7% | $19.47 | (394K SF) |
| Hialeah | 5.8% | $16.13 | (378K SF) |
| Miami Airport East | 9.0% | $21.50 | (246K SF) |
| Miami Airport North | 5.8% | $21.62 | 417K SF |
| South Central Miami | 4.0% | $30.23 | 28K SF |
| Miami Lakes | 7.4% | $19.34 | (151K SF) |
| Miami-Dade overall | 7.8% | $21.01 | (636K SF) |
Asking rent in $/SF NNN; net absorption trailing 12 months, negatives in parentheses. Vacancy is where you sit — South Central and the small-bay pockets stay tight; the Airport big-box submarkets carry the county’s slack.
Capital Markets
Miami-Dade industrial traded roughly $1.9 billion over the trailing twelve months — essentially in line with the ten-year average near $1.8 billion, so volume is holding rather than surging. What stands out is price: a modeled $280 per square foot and sub-6% cap rates, against $161/SF and 7.3% nationally. Investors are still paying a gateway premium for a coastal, land-constrained market — the discipline shows up in underwriting, not in withdrawal.
Comparable-sale pricing centers on a $281 median across 590 deals, against a $212 average — land-value and infill trades pull the average down, so the median reads truer for modern product. The friction here isn’t appetite — it’s basis. With rent growth cooling toward ~1% and cap rates in the high 5s, buyers are underwriting to durable in-place income and functional small-bay, not to further rent spikes. Tenanted, well-located product still clears; speculative big-box is where the bid-ask sits. On the supply side, the pipeline is concentrated — Kurv Industrial’s Doral buildings and Seagis at Medley lead the near-term deliveries.
From the Principals
What we’re seeing on the ground — beyond the tape.
“Miami’s headline vacancy is a big-box number wearing a whole-market label. Small-bay is still a landlord’s market — the two just don’t trade the same way anymore.”
The 7.8% print flattens two very different markets. Space over 250,000 SF is 13.2% vacant and taking close to a year to lease; product under 50,000 SF is 4.2% vacant and gone in under three months. That gap is the whole strategy. The basis play is functional small-bay near the airport corridors, where a genuine scarcity lets owners hold — and push — rent. The value-add play is well-located big-box that can be re-tenanted or split, bought at a basis the last cycle never offered. PepsiCo’s 794,000-SF commencement flattered the quarter, but one signing doesn’t refill the pipeline. With starts at their lowest since 2017 and just 1.6% of stock underway, the 2027 supply picture looks tighter than today’s tape reads.
— Matthew L. Phillips, SIOR · Principal · (561) 621-5466 · Matt@IronmarkCRE.com
“Capital never left Miami — it just got selective. At sub-6% caps on a coastal, land-locked market, the premium is the point, and buyers are underwriting to it.”
Roughly $1.9 billion traded over the trailing year — right on the ten-year average, so this is a market holding its footing, not overheating. The signal is in the pricing: a modeled $280 per foot and cap rates in the high 5s, versus $161 and 7.3% nationally. Investors are paying a gateway premium for a supply-constrained coastal market with genuine barriers to new product. Private buyers still drive half the volume; institutions are about a quarter. Our read: the constraint is basis, not confidence. With rent growth normalizing toward ~1%, underwriting has shifted to durable in-place income and small-bay functionality. Tenanted, well-located assets clear; speculative big-box is where the bid-ask still has to close.
— Troy Schaafsma, SIOR · Principal · (561) 621-5489 · Troy@IronmarkCRE.com
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Ironmark Florida Industrial Brief — Miami Edition. This brief is Ironmark Capital Advisory’s own analysis and commentary, current as of 3Q 2026; it is informational and not tax, legal, or investment advice. © 2026 Ironmark Capital Advisory.